Abstract: Based on ethnographic fieldwork in both the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) and the Asean Centre for Energy (ACE) we interrogate the role of computational modelling in institutional responses to climate futures. Drawing on the ethnographic literature on divination and oracular practices we reframe the utility of predictive modelling results from determinative truth claims about the future to efficacious warnings. We draw on contemporary theorizations of speech acts to itemize pivotal factors for the efficaciousness of oracular modelling results into four felicity concerns: Political purity, productive uncertainty, institutional connectivity and technical fidelity. Through a series of ethnographic illustrations we will argue for the continued salience of the anthropology of divination in understanding the social authority and impact of predictive computational modelling in institutional settings.

On February 20th from 12-13h we are joined by Asmus Rungby and Kristian Hoeck (Dept of Anthropology, KU), who are discussing predictive computational modelling of climate futures in their talk titled ‘Oracular modelling: predictive models and anthropocene divination’. Asmus and Kristian are both postdoctoral researchers. Asmus’ work centers around governance and political economy of green transition and democracy in southeast Asia, whilst Kristian’s work focuses on the ways in which humans engage with robotic and humanoid technologies.